Single Issue Voters
This is an interesting approach to analyzing issues for rational politicians:
Here's how single-issue voting works: Normally, a question is presented to the electorate and if 51% favor it, it should pass (assuming rational legislators - a dubious assumption in these dark days). If 51% oppose it, it should not pass. This ideal model, however, doesn't take intensity of preferences into account. For example, let's say 20% of voters really really want an environmental regulation eliminated. The other 80% would prefer to keep it, if you asked them, but they don't really care that much. Other issues are more important. If you're a legislator, you know that by opposing the elimination the regulation, you'll lose 20% of the electorate immediately and gain nothing. If you favor eliminating it, you gain 20% of the electorate, and lose nothing. Not a tough choice, is it? It's not a tough choice even though 80% of the population supports the regulation.
He goes on to say that this is how prohibition got passed, and why he fears that an anti-abortion law could be passed (if Roe is not upheld) even though a majority of Americans are in favor of abortion.
3 Comments:
I would say that this is more a case of 20% for, 80% indifferent, rather than 20% for and 80% opposed.
Now, that 80% may have a change of heart once something becomes law (as for example, prohibition), but still, the responsibility for their previous indifference lies with them.
"When will people learn? Democracy just doesn't work!"
That was me, by the way.
John
I think his point is that the 80% are opposed, however there are other issues that could take precedence, whereas for the 20% that single issue will decide their vote. So 20% of people will for an anti-abortion candidate no matter what he says about other issues, whereas the other 80% will not vote for a candidate merely because they are pro-abortion.
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